Decisions are tough, aren’t they? Almost every day, we are expected to make choices about how to go about our day- sometimes as mundane as, ‘what do we eat today?’, ‘whether to buy a particular brand of coffee or any other brands’, whether to take the bus or book a cab because we have an important meeting that day’, which are important in that moment but not necessarily dangerous. But there are also times, when decisions are not as easy or mundane – ‘whether to interpret complex scan images as a tumour’, or ‘patients deciding whether they can go through a high-risk surgery’, these decisions can be high-risk, because they can have long-term effects on a person’s health and wellbeing.
Signal Detection Theory
In psychology, a theory that talks about decision-making is Signal Detection Theory.
Signal Detection Theory examines our ability to process information and respond to it while simultaneously being exposed to a lot of ‘noise’ and other distractions. This theory, at its core, tries to understand how easy or difficult it is for us to process a stimulus (this could be information we have to understand or goals we need to achieve) when we factor in things like the intensity of the stimulus and also our psychological or physical state.
This theory mentions four possible outcomes we can reach as showed in the diagram below:
People may miss or falsely detect that ‘stimulus’ because of noise, which can include anything from distractions to our own mindset (how cautious we are or how often we take risks). These noises interfere with our ability to detect the signal or stimulus. Signal detection theory examines decisions that begin from a state of confusion, helping us understand how distractions can affect the choice made.
Let’s look at Signal Detection Theory through an example:
Let’s look at this through the example of a person trying to decide on a career trajectory to take a job in another city…
“JN gets a job offer in a different, larger city, which pays well, but she is confused because the city is expensive and she has to move far away from home (away from her support system). JN also has to travel to the new place on short notice, so she is stressed out. Not only that, JN noticed that the offer letter doesn’t clearly state her job role or the responsibilities she has to take, even though it vaguely falls within the area of her expertise (this could be a matter of concern). JN usually feels extremely overwhelmed, and she can spare only a few days to find a place to stay before she starts her new job.”
Based on this information, this is how Signal Detection theory can be used to categorise this situation as follows:
Stimulus/Signal:
For JN, the opportunity to do her dream job would be the stimulus she wants to focus on. Her decisions would be based on whether this job offer she received is her dream job.
Noise:
Travelling to a new expensive city, the expenses of living there, her own anxiety or the vague offer letter.
JN can reach these possible solutions according to Signal Detection Theory:
HIT:
She takes the well-paying job and realises her stress or anxious thoughts may be interfering with her choice.
MISS:
She does not take the job, giving in to her overwhelming thoughts, and the time crunch to find the job could all be additional factors that either lead to her rejecting a great job offer or realising this job offer isn’t the best fit.
FALSE ALARM:
While the job was well-paying, the offer letter indicated that the job was vague, which led to a mismatch of what she expected and what she was expected to do. Additionally, because the city is expensive, the salary wasn’t sustainable enough for her.
CORRECT REJECTION:
JN realises that the job offer, while looking good on the surface level, has pitfalls that would affect her work in the long run. She may instead focus on a job that she can work in the long term.
You might look at this and disagree with the outcomes, and that is understandable because our personalities and life circumstances can add to the uncertainties that come with important life decisions. Which means that what is a distraction for one person may not be so for another, and what is an important stimulus for one person may not be so for another.
Understanding our decision making process:
- Understanding our personality differences (am I generally a cautious person, or do I prefer taking risks): Understanding who we are and how we approach life choices (are we cautious in how we make choices, or do we spend less time thinking about them). Sometimes, cautious people may end up giving a lot of weight to the ‘noise’ (for them) during the decision-making process.
- Understanding the purpose behind a decision and the risks involved: When we make any decisions, asking ourselves what our reasons are for going with a decision (in this example, JN could try to understand what are all her reasons to choose/to not choose to take the job offer) and also understand the risks involved in the decision (would JN risk being unemployed if she didn’t take the the job, would the expense of living in an expensive city affect her savings from the job).
- Prepare for a worst-case scenario (not ruminate but prepare): Most of the time, we may ruminate about the worst-case scenario, and that can add to our anxiety because we constantly think about how the worst possible scenario may become real. But preparing for the worst-case scenario shifts our focus to problem-solving as best as we can. This can be done while talking to a trusted friend or even a therapist.
- Look into all four possible outcomes and what that means for us: This may sound rather tedious and… to some extent it is. But when we imagine what the end states of each of the four outcomes would be like, it may help us try to plan better. JN imagines herself successfully starting the new job (a possible HIT), giving up the job opportunity (imagining it as a MISS), seeing what this job opportunity would look like as a false alarm (the vague offer letter may make her work experience stagnant and stressful) or as a correct rejection (she chose correctly because this job opportunity wasn’t good for her). This can feel time-consuming, but this brainstorming can be done with the help of someone or through journaling, which can give new insights into our decision. This particular example may not work for everyone (for some people, any job is a life-saver, and they may not even consider the nitty-gritties of an ‘ideal job’).
Signal Detection Theory was studied within the context of a situation where there is uncertainty or confusion about our decisions. For some people, it may be connected to career-related decisions, and for others, it may be in other areas of their lives. But this theory focuses on the internal and external factors that can create ‘noise’ and affect our decision-making process.
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